LEADING INDICATORS

Leading indicators fall 0.7% in July Point to slow growth, or 'economy grinding to halt,' Conference Board says By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last update: 10:24 a.m. EDT Aug. 21, 2008 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.7% in July, pointing to "slow growth the rest of the year, and possibly an economy grinding to a halt," the Conference Board reported Thursday. "If there's a second-half recovery, it'll be the second half of 2009," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research organization. "The recent decline in gas prices isn't enough to overcome all the negative momentum that's been building up." Five of the 10 indicators declined in July, led by building permits and stock prices. Three of the indicators rose, led by the interest-rate spread and consumer expectations. In the past six months, the leading index has fallen at a 1.8% annual rate, with seven of the 10 indicators falling over that period. The index was flat in June. The coincident index rose 0.1% in July. In the past six months, the coincident index (which includes the four indicators used to judge whether the economy is in recession) fell 0.4%, with all four indicators dropping. The leading index is designed to forecast turning points in the economy. Together, all three indexes "suggests the risks for further economic weakening in the near term remain elevated." Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.