Saturday, September 6, 2008
To all of you who have chosen to follow my comments on both MarketWatch, and now on these blogs... I want you all to know that I have done my very best to warn you about what is coming. This weekend, as the news flows in about the Guv'mint Takeover of Fannie and Freddie, which is nothing but an acknowledgement of their complete BANKRUPTCY, and therefore the BANKRUPTCY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA... I caution you all to keep yourselves grounded in the FUNDAMENTALS we have discussed since I created the GOLDTRADER SITES for you all to have access to the unabashed TRUTH of our collective predicament. I AM NOT AN ORACLE, NOR CAN I PREDICT THE FUTURE TO A DATE CERTAIN... But I am sure that MONDAY SEPTEMBER 8TH, 2008 will go down in HISTORY as the day that the World finally had its face shoved into the CREAM PIE OF TRUTH that all fiat currencies are now essentially WITHOUT VALUE and that... GOLD IS THE UNIVERSAL STORE OF WEALTH for the days ahead of us. Monday, the markets will move DRAMATICALLY... in one of two directions... They will move so fast that I will have no time to even print out a chart or make a comment that will serve you properly in the slightest degree. But I will attempt to do what I can to keep you attuned to THE TRUTH of what will be happening as the world markets adjust between THE SPIN and THE TRUTH. The Dollar could skyrocket, momentarily, and gold could plunge. OR...the OPPOSITE could occur, which would be the most logical thing to happen, and therefore...THE LEAST LIKELY! Don't do anything foolish with your PM holdings because ULTIMATELY... GOLD WILL PREVAIL! Do your best to keep up with the unfolding drama on Sunday and keep THE FUNDAMENTALS close to your hearts and minds... as it will determine whether or not you survive in any degree of comfort and human decency the complete TERROR of what is about to transpire. I CANNOT STATE THIS EMPHATICALLY ENOUGH... THE WORST IS ABOUT TO BECOME REALITY! MAY THE FORCE THAT CREATED THIS EXISTENCE BE KIND TO YOU! GT
Dow shaved rudely, Real Estate losses taking markets down, unemployment a 5 year high, markets still acting irrationally, physical gold behavior due to comex influence, check what the Yen and the Euro are doing FOR ENTIRE ARTICLE: http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Dow_Gets_A_Brush_Cut
Loan Giant Overstated the Size of Its Capital Base By GRETCHEN MORGENSON and CHARLES DUHIGG Published: September 6, 2008 The government’s planned takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, expected to be announced as early as this weekend, came together hurriedly after advisers poring over the companies’ books for the Treasury Department concluded that Freddie’s accounting methods had overstated its capital cushion, according to regulatory officials briefed on the matter. FOR REST OF ARTICLE: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07fannie.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Friday, September 5, 2008
Posted On: Friday, September 05, 2008, 6:40:00 PM EST Haven't We All Had Enough? Author: Jim Sinclair Dear Friends, Haven’t we all had enough? Isn’t it insulting to you when major publications carry reports that Lehman nicknamed their corporate garbage can either Spinco or BadBank? Bad banks are a product of OTC derivatives. Spin is how black is made to look like white. Is this simply bad humor or is Lehman giving us all the middle finger salute? So here we have a major international investment company rubbing both spin and weak banking conditions in our face as they are bailed out via the Federal Reserve Begging Bowl window. Illegal attacks on our gold shares are costing billions of dollars in damage and there is no Begging Bowl loan window offering us or the company’s full recovery through 28 day perma-loans. In a sense the people who appear to be giving us the bird are more than likely the brokers for those that seek to injure the gold gang. Of course they think with impunity. These power trippers seem to be intoxicated with themselves because they have recently bit the hand that feeds them. Raids of Fannie, Freddie and Bear Stearns (amongst others) is an act of turning on their benefactors. We shall see. Let’s not forget about Mr. Gross of Pimco, who called upon the US Treasury to bail out all financial entities that made enormous profits on OTC derivatives. They make money and the US Treasury/Fed covers the losses. They make massive money and your children and their children bail them out. We are attacked by the financial equivalent of Highway Men and nobody gives a damn. Haven't we all had enough? Another affront of one’s intelligence, and of course part of the “Hold the Hill” strategy, is the argument being broadcast by all media (and all the Hill’s friends) that spins the story that CURRENCY VALUE IS DETERMINED BY COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. When push comes to shove, what determines a currency’s value will be the degree of financial failures and size of the financial bailouts because these events cause the volume of paper money to increase substantially. The value of currencies, when written off by the history of this time, will not be a function of competitive levels of economic activity but rather who held the most OTC derivatives. The USA is the eye of this hurricane of financial weapons of mass destruction already acting true to their name.
Be sure to read Dan Norcini's comments on his afternoon chart today. It gives me great satisfaction to know I'm not the only one who thinks these markets are trading in a completely irrational manner from the obvious manipulation by the great powers that need to keep us all in our economic position of feudal serfdom subservient to their omniscient running of the Universe. My other thought last night after watching McCrazy... Is that the only thing he learned from being tortured as a prisoner of war... was to tell people what they want to hear...so he could get what he wanted... In that case, it was to get them to stop hurting him... Presently, it's to get us to believe he wouldn't push the red Nuclear button as soon as he gained access to it. Yeah, right!
Watched the McCain speech and the run up to it last night. After Watching Sarah Palin's little movie that they didn't show last night, probably because it wasn't ready in time, and then watching the McCain movie before his speech, when the lights went out just before he came out, I was sure they had a erected a long pool of water for him to walk on. The Repubs fell back on their old time-tested tricks of drowning us in visual propaganda with their giant electronic waving flags, etc. It was nice to see a few protesters managed to sneak in and get rousted by the young college age heavies planted in the audience...so much for protest in this country! Gold managed to slowly rise yesterday afternoon after what appears to be the regular sell off at 4:15pm pdst when CBOT gold re-opens. It sold off to 79480 and then steadily rose until 11:15pm pdst when it gradually pulled back four dollars and then rallied to a higher point at 80410 at midnight when the golden pumpkin burst and gold sold off rather rapidly until 1:35am pdst and has gone up and down between 796 and 800 twice until the sudden burst at 4:35am pdst which pulled back a bit and is now rising a bit higher to 80280 at this moment. Will it sell off before the open...PROBABLY! TODAY'S REPORTS: Nonfarm payrolls Unemployment rate Average hourly earnings The dollar is jacked up so high now on nothing but spin and manipulation, that when it finally falls, it is going to come down like and anvil in a vacuum. That's when gold will explode and probably never come down again. gold is still rising as I publish this.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: The CBO recently put taxpayer losses for the Fannie and Freddie bailouts at $25 billion. Don A. Rich finds this number laughable – and the figure he presents may give you nightmares. Read on... THE REAL COST OF A FULL BAILOUT by Don A. Rich A recent study from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has zero credibility. It pegged likely taxpayer losses in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailouts at $25 billion. For those with a sense of history, it is worth remembering that the S&L bailout had a $160 billion price tag. The numbers diverge so far from reality as to be laugh-out-loud funny. Funny, that is, except that the CBO estimate demonstrates a willful disconnect with the actual consequences of federal government actions. As demonstrated below, the real cost of the bailouts will easily exceed $1.3 trillion. In fact, the real cost is likely to range between $1.3 trillion to $1.6 trillion, and is not unlikely to reach $2.5 trillion. Between 2001 and 2007, Fannie and Freddie purchased or guaranteed $700 billion of Alt-A and subprime loans. Given the default rates on these loans – and the fact that the price of the housing that is the ultimate security of the loans will, for reasons demonstrated below, fall by at least thirty percent – this alone implies a loss for Fannie and Freddie on the order of $210 billion. Fannie and Freddie acknowledge already-impaired loans on the balance sheet of $19 billion, which they have used creative accounting to avoid deleting from the shareholder equity account. This means that Fannie and Freddie have a maximum of $64 billion in capital remaining. Given the inevitable losses on the Alt-A/subprime portion of their portfolio, it must be the case that if the federal government, as it is doing, guarantees Fannie and Freddie's solvency, the difference between the loss and the capital to be made up by the government (i.e., the taxpayers) must equal, not $25 billion but $147 billion. That alone would mean that the CBO is blowing smoke with their estimated cost figures, and if you think back to the S&L cost of $160 billion, this is not a surprising result. The real picture is so much worse that it is pretty obvious the CBO is flat out inventing figures just to get the politicians through November. The real story is simple. We have witnessed the largest asset-price bubble in US history, making the tech-stock bubble seem like an overdone weekly rally. When you look at the graph of the Case-Shiller residential real-estate index, an index dating from 1890 to the present and an index which measures the cost of housing in comparison to other goods, the first thing you see is that the 2001 to 2006 bubble stands out like a fifty foot saguaro cactus in a patch of daisies. There simply has never been When you know what you are looking at – the biggest bubble in history – it is scary. To be precise, the Case-Shiller Index in its entire 110-year history had never crossed 140 until the recent bubble. In 2006, it reached 210. Every single real-estate bubble in the past has at best been followed by a fall back to at least the 110 level in the postwar era, although the bubble preceding the Great Depression witnessed a fall to 60. What this means is that in the best-case scenario, real-estate prices have to fall in the medium to long run by almost half. Now consider Fannie and Freddie. Just looking at their portfolios on the balance sheet without the guarantees, let us accept (for no particular reason other than a desire that the reader sleep better at night) that real-estate prices only fall by thirty percent. Well, since Uncle Sam is now committed to “doing whatever it takes,” that is a loss right there of $1 trillion. This commitment to keep financial markets open as usual is made in spite of the overwhelming evidence that what we have been taught is usual is in fact delusional, given that Fannie and Freddie own $3 trillion and change of mortgages. The CBO is not fence-post stupid, so obviously just as in the S&L fiasco in 1988, they are outright inventing figures so that the politicians can slither into November and then announce, Whoops! our numbers were a little low. The more realistic scenario is actually worse. Fannie and Freddie own and guarantee a total of more than $5 trillion in mortgages. Given the long-run historically plausible equilibrium values of residential real estate as embodied in the Case-Shiller Index, that means that the taxpayer loss definitely reaches $1.3 trillion, easily ranging up to $1.6 trillion. Unfortunately, that is the good news. The bad news is that if real-estate prices were to replicate the Great Depression (as would surely occur in the case that hedging instruments of Fannie and Freddie were to catastrophically fail due to counterparty failure – and given the absurdly low risk premiums on credit-default swaps at the height of the bubble, such an event cannot be considered unlikely) the Case-Shiller Index tells us that the loss to the taxpayers could exceed $2.5 trillion dollars. I don't know what those people in Washington are taking to sleep at night after all their electorally driven accounting and finance exercises, but I can tell you what they will be doing to keep the government open for business: printing a whole lot of money. Chairman Bernanke has the discount window open to any collateralization not worth the paper it is written on, so in effect he has the helicopters ready to drop hundred-dollar bills over Wall Street – as he once famously described the ultimate policy instrument of a fiat-money system. Of course, if he does that, we will have to change his nickname from Helicopter Ben to Hyperinflation Ben, which answers the question of who picks up the tab of bailing out Fannie and Freddie: anyone owning dollars. Produce a lot of something, and it becomes worth less. And given the losses at Fannie and Freddie, the taxpayer guarantee, and the ongoing initiation of Boomer retirement, only the inflation tax will work to pay for keeping Fannie and Freddie afloat. Like it or not, we are about to enter interesting times, and it is too bad our supposed professional civil servants at the Congressional Budget Office have failed to tell the emperor the truth: that he is buck-naked bankrupt and getting ready to take a lot of people with him. Our only hope is to (1) accept up front a twenty-percent fall in American living standards for a people living beyond their means for the past twenty-five years on the delusions made possible by fiat money, and (2) simultaneously discipline the creature from Jekyll Island, a.k.a. the Federal Reserve System, not to create new money just to prop up asset-price bubbles. Regards, Don A. Rich for The Daily Reckoning Editor’s Note: Don A. Rich is an instructor of economics, finance, and political science at Montgomery County Community College in Blue Bell, PA. He also teaches economics, government, and history at Delaware County Community College in Exton, PA. Send him mail . Comment on the mises.org blog .
Today, everyone and their grandmother got creamed. You knew it was coming..didn't you? I suggest that you all read JSMINESET.COM like it's THE BIBLE... because it is...as far as PMs and the economy is concerned. I also suggest that you read THE CULTURE OF LIFE NEWS by ELAINE MEINEL SUPKIS every day... Along with THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER by BOB CHAPMAN. These two people don't fear including the "conspiracy" elements in what's going on, that Sinclair and others don't include in their comments, because too many people would then start thinking that "they are way out there!" When, in fact, Supkis and Chapman are "RIGHT IN THERE!" There are powers in this world that you folks can't even imagine, that control the economies, and therefore the life blood, of the world. Without trustworthy MEDIA (medium plural) OF EXCHANGE (dollars, gold, salt wheels) we can't make efficient exchanges of goods and services and fall back into the barter age. It's all coming apart at the seams right now folks... So you better be taking advantage of this dip and grab all the PMs you can beg, borrow or steal... Because I'm telling you right now...this is the bottom before the big runup for the rest of the year and into the future... Just like the last three to five years have done like clock work... Only this time...we are headed full speed into A MAD MAX WORLD! Get your survival supplies, weapons, and all else you will need RIGHT NOW! YOU HAVE RUN OUT OF TIME...THERE IS NO MORE SLACK! DO IT NOW OR SUFFER GREATLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE! Make sure you have water purification and storage, food supplies for a year or more, and the weapons and knowledge to defend yourself against starving crazy people who are going to be on the rampage looking to take what you have... Good luck to you all... You are going to need a lot of it...and lots of ammunition.
U.S. Q2 productivitiy revised higher, unit labor costs lower By Greg Robb Last update: 8:30 a.m. EDT Sept. 4, 2008 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The productivity of U.S. nonfarm businesses was revised higher in the second quarter than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Productivity, which is defined as output per hour worked, rose at a 4.3% annual rate in the quarter, revised from 2.2% in the earlier estimate a month ago. Unit labor costs -- a key inflation gauge - fell 0.5%, revised down from a gain of 1.3%, the biggest decrease since the third quarter of 2007. For the last year, productivity increased to 3.4% from the previously reported 2.8%. This is the fastest annual increase in productivity in four years. Unit labor costs rose 0.6% year-over-year, compared with the previous estimate of 1.5%. Low unit labor costs should dampen concern about wage growth pressure from high oil and commodity prices. DO YOU FOLKS SEE ANY PRODUCTIVITY? GOLD RALLIES, THEN FALLS ON THIS NEWS.
TODAY'S REPORTS: ADP employment index Jobless claims Productivity Unit labor costs ISM services Over 4,000 contracts moving gold up since 4am pdst. Almost rallied 75% to 81730 so far. Probably another quick rally on the opening and a sell off as gold is up against the first area of strong resistance at 820 area (says Dan Norcini) How many of you are reading the articles I am recommending and posting. Have you looked up the BLACK NOBILITY yet? Very interesting...some links will sound crazy...but there is history there that is now influencing what's going on today. Bob Chapman and Elaine Meinel Supkis aren't afraid to discuss intelligently subjects that the average discussion avoids. There ARE conspiracies going on... All you have to do is open your eyes and see through your own personal brainwashing that has happened to you since the day you entered this world.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
THANKS TO CSPANJUNKIE FOR THE LINK! The Bush Administration Is an Ongoing Criminal Conspiracy Under International Law and U.S. Domestic Law by Prof. Francis A. Boyle EXCERPT: "American citizens possess the basic right under international law and United States domestic law, including the U.S. Constitution, to engage in acts of civil resistance designed to prevent, impede, thwart, or terminate ongoing criminal activities perpetrated by Bush administration officials in their conduct of foreign affairs policies and military operations purported to relate to defense and counter-terrorism. Today’s civil resisters are the sheriffs! The Bush administration officials are the outlaws!" "We American citizens must reaffirm our commitment to the Nuremberg Charter, Judgment, and Principles by holding our government officials fully accountable under international law and U.S. domestic law for the commission of such grievous international and domestic crimes." FOR ENTIRE ARTICLE: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10036 BE SURE TO GO TO THE HOME PAGE AND REVIEW THE OTHER ARTICLES!
YOU FOLKS DON'T WANT TO MISS A WORD OF WHAT BOB CHAPMAN IS TELLING YOU... THIS MAN SPEAKS THE TRUTH! SHARE THIS ARTICLE FAR AND WIDE...TO EVERYONE YOU CARE ABOUT... TIME IS GROWING SHORT TO PREPARE FOR THE WORST DEPRESSION THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN! EXCERPT: "Dont bail out the big failures in the markets, time to throw out the toxic waste stocks, reign in the tax system, America as the next Weimar republic, more subprime losses to come, elitists cant control Russia, credit problems all around" FOR ENTIRE ARTICLE: http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Purge_The_System_of_its_Failures
5:00AM PDST TODAY'S REPORTS: Retail chain index Factory orders This is getting to be like "Groundhog Day" the movie. Wake up, gold rallies overnight, sells off before the NY Pit Session Opens. Reports come out, gold convulses, one way or the other, either sells off in a panic mode, or rallies insanely, only to then take it all back from profit selling... So far, those people running this World have done a magnificent job of manipulating it into a state of "pre-total economic collapse" without actually triggering the collapse...which is IMPLICIT in the state of things. It will only take that one event that finally makes everyone run from the dollar and all paper money and run to the ONLY REAL MONEY EVER...GOLD/SILVER! How many days have we had like today where you just can't believe they could jack the dollar up so high, oil so low, Bonds up (lowering interest rates) and maybe rally the stock market.... only to have it all fall apart 24 hours later. KEEP YOUR PERSPECTIVE on the situation... A day does NOT a revolution make. This revolution will occur BECAUSE IT HAS TO! A state of imbalance in any system cannot sustain itself indefinitely. Just look at your personal balance sheet. Getting worse every day...right? Others don't even have balance sheets...they're just broke and existing on fumes right now... The system is broken and only THE NATURAL BALANCE can fix it!
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Today things moved very fast even before the day session opening so I couldn't post these comments, but relied on the charts to convey the message. Gold stayed remarkably strong after the early sell off and I fully expected it to retest the low of the day as gold almost always does by rallying off of it a short distance, then falls back to it a couple of times, then goes below it quickly to snag a few market sell orders placed by beginners, then comes back to finally rally with certainty. But like always, gold did what it wanted, not what I expected it to do, even though it's done it a thousand times before. So gold rallied even though the dollar stayed strong, the euro was weak and oil sold off from the manipulated highs we have become used to even though oil production has been curtailed during Gustav's time over the oil rigs. These markets are so manipulated now that it's a wonder that anyone can trade anything at all. The only thing left to do is buy your pms at every low you see and hang on for the destruction of our economy, and therefore our way of life, in the near future. The only reason there is any slack left in the system is because the derivatives still on the books of these large institutions, and in the hands of various levels of investors, is because they have NOT BEEN MARKED TO MARKET, and are still being valued BY MODEL or held in accounting areas that keep them off the balance sheet. It's only a matter of time. Meanwhile the BIGGIES are driving PMs down while making money in everything else they can manipulate and then taking those profits to scoop up all the cheap price gold they have also managed to depress. When they have it all, they will let Pandora out of her box once again... and people will die in the World Wide Economic Collapse that will result. As always, the rich will prosper, and the serfs will perish... Gold is nearing the period where it looks like it will never go back up, only to explode to the upside for the rest of the year. DON'T BE FOOLED AND SELL OUT AT THE BOTTOM! Because this is going to be your last chance to acquire PMs at this level ever again!
Monday, September 1, 2008
THANKS TO CSPANJUNKIE FOR THE LINK War with Russia is on the agenda By Paul Craig Roberts Thinking about the massive failure of the U.S. media to report truthfully is sobering. The United States, bristling with nuclear weapons and pursuing a policy of world hegemony, has a population that is kept in the dark -- indeed brainwashed -- about the most important and most dangerous events of our time. FOR THE ENTIRE ARTICLE: GO TO TEHRANTIMES.COM (GT: link will not copy or post correctly)
Sunday, August 31, 2008
http://www.worldreports.org/ JUST KEEP READING AND CLICK ON THE LINKS. THEN GO TO THE HOME PAGE AND READ SOME OF THE OTHER ARTICLES, ESPECIALLY ON LEO WANTA. THIS IS ALL MORE THAN LIKELY TRUE, AS YOU ALL CERTAINLY CAN SENSE IN WHAT IS HAPPENING DAY BY DAY IF YOU ONLY BELIEVE YOUR EYES AND EARS.
Stock Markets on a Seesaw (GT: How the dollar managed to rise) EXCERPT: "The system is about to collapse. Within the next two to three months we will see the nationalization of Fannie and Freddie and a major bank failure, perhaps the largest on record that could wipe out the entire reserves of the FDIC. As this transpires, the precious metals enter their seasonal strength while war in the Balkans looms with ever-increasing tensions. Iran is also perceived as a potential trouble area. These various dire circumstances will be supportive of precious metals and oil, which are going to head much higher. We do not think the elitists can hold the system together through the elections in November. The problems are accelerating, both in frequency and in severity." FOR ENTIRE ARTICLE: http://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Stock_Markets_on_a_Seesaw