TRADER DAN ON JSMINESET.COM COMMENTS DEC 4, 2008

Trader Dan Comments On The Dire Condition Of The International Monetary System Posted: Dec 04 2008 By: Dan Norcini Dear CIGAs, Linked below are a few charts showing the custodial account treasury holdings and agency holdings. If there is any wonder why the bond market is experiencing a once-in-a-generation bubble, just look at the Treasury Holdings chart. It is going vertical. Meanwhile, the chart showing the Agency debt holdings such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continues its “fall off a cliff” imitation. Foreign Central Banks are dropping Fannie and Freddie debt like a bad habit and rushing into US Treasuries. I keep wondering just who it is that is supposed to provide the capital for Fannie and Freddie to function! The feds supposedly dumped $200 billion into them if I recall correctly but foreign Central Banks have already unloaded $120 billion. At the rate the FCB’s are ditching the debt, it looks like it is a wash and we are back to where Fannie and Freddie were in July. I read these charts as an indicator as to just how dire is the condition of the world’s current monetary system. If any of these foreign Central Banks balks at buying US Treasuries or even whisper about selling them, Katie bar the door on the US Dollar. Still, I think it is just a matter of time before the US has to devalue the dollar if it ever hopes to make good on these ever-increasing obligations. It reminds me of one of those old biology films we used to watch back in school when the virus would divide and just keep on dividing and dividing and dividing. Maybe we could rename US Treasury bonds to US Treasury viruses - They just keep on multiplying until they suck the life out of their host. Also, note the yield charts on the 3 month and the 10 year. The three month is effectively at zero. I have not shown them but the one month is at 0.01% and the one year is at 0.61%. Talk about zero bound… Quantitative Easing, here we come with a vengeance. They have no other choice. Trader Dan