Sunday, January 4, 2009
Sunday January 4, 2009 FROM CASEY RESEARCH DAILY EMAIL
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Excerpt from Saturday Jan 3, 2009's email:
And then there's this...
From Ed Steer:
On New Years eve day, gold got sold off in the Far East a bit...and then the down trend accelerated through London trading, with the bottom being the London p.m. gold fix. From there...and to everyone's surprise...the price took off to the upside with some real authority. True, there hadn't been a lot of volume up until that point, but that changed from the London p.m. fix until the close of trading in New York. Silver's chart was very similar, with the metal turning in an outstanding day as well. Gold put in an "outside day key reversal to the upside"...which is a very bullish technical indicator. The boyz have never...ever...allowed this technical indicator to work in gold...and have taken gold down the very next day to negate it.
The world's gold market's were closed on January 1st, but once early morning trading began on January 2nd in the Far East, the price spike in gold was killed immediately...and it became obvious that someone (JPMorgan, perhaps?) didn't want gold to rise and confirm that bullish technical indicator I just spoke of, so it was taken down with some authority...as was silver. This lasted until about 1:00 p.m. in Hong Kong, when both metals began to recover somewhat...but the selling pressure showed up again as soon as London opened, and continued that way, with both metals on the defensive when New York opened. Gold was not allowed in positive territory for the rest of the N.Y. trading session, but silver was allowed to tack on about 40 cents. Both metals would have done better yesterday, but it was obvious that someone didn't want runaway prices to the upside during London or New York...which is what would have happened if the moonshot open in gold that began in early Tuesday morning Globex trading had been allowed to run its natural course.
In Tuesday's trading, gold open interest rose another 2,142 contracts to 300,448...with silver open interest actually declining 441 contracts to 85,312 contracts. New Year's eve's (Wednesday) open interest changes on the big spike showed an open interest increase in gold of a largish 6,203 contracts to 306,651. Silver o.i. rose 611 contracts to 85,923 contracts. It will be of great interest to see what Friday's open interest figures are like once they become available on Monday morning.
The other item of interest on Monday will be the latest Commitment of Traders report. It will be interesting to see what the CFTC uses for a cut-off date. But regardless of which day they pick...neither Wednesday's nor Friday's dramatic action in gold and silver will be in that one. We'll have to wait four more days until next Friday to see who went long and who sold short these last couple of trading days.
In gold news, the usual N.Y. commentator was not pleased (nor was I) about Indian imports of gold for December and all of 2008..."Yesterday the Bombay Bullion Association announced that India's December bullion imports dropped 81% from last year to 3 tonnes...and that the full year's imports were only 402 tonnes, down 47% from 2007's 759 tonnes." Equally disappointing was Turkish demand in December...a miniscule 227 kilos. His closing comment was the following..."The rally appears to be fuelled entirely by Western speculative sentiment, which can be very powerful. But with such a weak base in physical demand, it is likely to be short lived." We'll see. And lastly, I see that the GLD ETF added another 150,000 ounces on December 29th to a new record high total of 780 tonnes...if you believe that they actually have all the gold they say they do, that is. Oops...one more thing..."Apex Silver Mines Limited has received a delisting notice from the NYSE." If you're wondering why...just take a look at their hedge book...and the current zinc price.
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