DAN NORCINI COMMENTS ON GOLD'S CURRENT SITUATION

Trader Dan Comments On The Condition Of The Gold And US Dollar Markets Posted: Sep 20 2009 Dear Friends, Please review the following two charts to give a brief technical look at both gold and the US Dollar. (GT sez: Go to JSMINESET.COM to see this post and the charts) Speculative long positions continue to grow as they look to drive gold higher in the face of concerted opposition by the bullion banks with swap dealers also favoring the short side. The latter category can be difficult to decipher since they can be representing both speculators as well as hedging long side exposure due to over the counter positions that they have taken on with other clients. I happen to believe that when it comes to gold, that these swap dealers include both Goldman and Morgan. Some of you might be wondering what in the world we are now talking about “swap dealers” when it comes to analyzing the Commitment of Traders report. In a nutshell, the CFTC is responding to requests from the industry to provide more transparency into the nature of those constituting the “commercial” side of the reports. Formerly, these reports were used by traders to see what the firms who buy and sell the actual physical product behind the futures markets were doing in an attempt to glean the view of that particular market being taken by those whose business dealings include buying and selling of the actual commodity on a daily basis. The idea has been that when that group was leaning heavily to one side or the other, that the market was ripe for a reversal. What has happened however is that the CFTC gave commercial hedging status to swap dealers not all that long ago and as their activity began to grow off the exchanges, they began to seek out the regulated exchanges in order to offload risk from their transactions with their clients, who were looking for exposure to the commodity markets, but wished to trade off the exchange for various reasons. In the case of some, it was the inability to buy or sell contracts that were perfectly suited to their business needs. For others it is the desirability of remaining a bit more anonymous. Either way, these swap dealers provide products meeting the needs of these firms or funds and in the process of so doing, take on financial risk which comes with being effectively long or short a particular commodity market. They began to migrate to the regulated futures exchanges in an attempt to hedge that risk. The CFTC then gave them hedger status which is of great benefit because it allows them basically unlimited position size as well as lower margin requirements. All of this is currently under review but for now, the CFTC has issued a newer, more transparent report of the COT which details the positions of these swap dealers. When it comes to gold, not a lot has really actually changed for us when it comes to analyzing these reports. We can look at the old familiar report with the simple breakdown between commercials and large reportables (mainly the funds) and see the same exact setup that we see under the newer COT reports. In the case of the newer reports, these swap dealers are heavily short alongside of what the CFTC considers to be the actual “Producer/Merchant/Processor/User” category. In effect, the PMPU category is a large net short and the Swap Dealers are also large net shorts. The Managed Money side of the equation are hugely and lopsidedly net longs with the other reportables (large specs) strongly net long as well. Basically we still have the same setup when it comes to gold – the specs are long and the commercials are still short, only with this distinction – that the swap dealers are on the same side of the market as the commercials. There is nothing to say that these swap dealers are any better judge of market fundamentals than any other well studied and informed speculative interest. What I might add however is that the managed money of today is no longer managed in the same sense that it once was where managers were experts on the supply/demand factors behind the various markets that they chose to invest in for their clients. Today’s managed money funds are algorithm driven and momentum chasers which is why anytime we see a build of large size on one side of a market that we need to be alert for any signs that momentum might be changing, either up or down. In the case of gold we are talking about upward momentum of course. As I mentioned in a previous post, just because the speculative community is pushing a market higher and has built a large position of size, does not imply that a reversal is ripe for happening. IT takes speculative power to drive markets higher and as long as the specs have an appetite for a market, that is healthy for a bull market. They can keep pushing and pushing and pushing for far longer than many shorts can sustain their trading accounts. What is important however is that when the specs have amassed a large position on one side of the market, a trigger event or a slowdown in upward momentum (more so in these days of momentum driven market madness), can send this crowd packing in a real hurry so a wise trader will take notice and be careful to observe any warning signs. My analysis of the current report shows these commercials with the largest outright short position that they have ever held with the specs holding the largest outright long position that is on record. What this means is that the bullion banks will be looking to scare the longs out in order to induce further liquidation and cause a setback in price. However, what they have working against them right now is that the Dollar is not cooperating and has not yet reached into oversold levels on the longer term charts. Additionally, China’s recent announcement related to gold and silver means that there will be buyers beneath the market who will strongly welcome any setbacks in price. The key in furthering gold’s advance is completely in the hands of the managed money or momentum funds who must not succumb to their usual habit of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory . Keep an eye on the Dollar because that market is simply too large for the same players who infest the Comex to dominate it. The Forex markets are gargantuan in comparison to the tiny Comex market. The Dollar’s fundamentals are simply horrific and too many governments are looking for ways to cut their exposure to the US due to its profligate ways for any bull market in the Dollar to commence. All rallies in the Dollar are merely bear market blips that will not be sustained as willing sellers will most assuredly use rallies to unload or diversify. That is the dilemma faced by the price riggers at the Comex. For now, I would want to see gold find support above $1,000 on any price setbacks to avoid any deeper retracement in price. More specifically, any retreat down to that area, needs to find buyers to push it back up and away prior to the close of the pit session, since that is the mark that the technical analysis programs and algorithms still tend to key in on. Seasonally gold’s strongest period is ahead of it so that is working in its favor right now as opposed to the usual summer doldrums. Trader Dan

What If Everyone in the World Wanted a 1-ounce Gold Coin?

What If Everyone in the World Wanted a 1-ounce Gold Coin? By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report If we’re right about where the price of gold is headed, the general public will someday clamor to buy all things gold. While gold stocks will be where the real leverage is, the rush will start with gold itself. As a gold editor, I have a very natural question: is there enough to go around? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 6.783 billion earthlings. Meanwhile, CPM Group, a highly respected industry organization, estimates there are 4.8 billion ounces of above-ground gold in the world. And this includes jewelry, electronics, and dental. So, even if everyone around the world volunteered to have their chain, cross, or tooth melted into a coin, we’re already short. Those towards the end of the line are out of luck. However, it’s worse than that. Of all the physical metal ever mined... 2.1 billion ounces, or 43%, is found in jewelry, decorative, and religious items. Private stock – gold already held by various private parties – accounts for 1.1 billion ounces. Official reserves (central banks, IMF, etc.) stand at 1 billion ounces. Industrial use accounts for 530 million ounces. Very little of this is likely to come available for purchase in coin form. After all, you’re not selling any of your gold, and neither are many banks or institutions. Most everyone is buying. So for those who don’t yet have a gold coin (or you greedy investors who want more than one), this pretty much leaves us with mine production and scrap sources. CPM forecasts that total new supply in 2009 will be around 122 million ounces. Only a small percentage of this is made into gold coins and bars, but if all of it were, it would amount to less than two one-hundredths of an ounce, or about half a gram, for every man, woman, and child on earth this year. A product of this dimension is about half the size of that small button on your shirt collar. Since this supply is only available annually, it means 0.018% of the global population – one in every 55 people – could buy a one-ounce gold coin this year. Or, said differently, it would take 55 years before everybody had one, assuming the population never increased (it is) and supply never decreased (it is). But it’s worse than that. Actual 2009 coin production will be around 5 million ounces (excluding medallions or “rounds”), leaving two one-hundredths of a gram of gold (or 0.3 of a grain) available this year for each of the planet’s inhabitants. This is about half the size of the sesame seed that fell off your hamburger bun at dinner last night. It means that only 0.0007% of earth’s citizens – or one in 1,356 – can buy a one-ounce gold coin this year, and it would take 1,356 years for everyone to get one. How’s that for a supply squeeze? But it’s worse than that. Demand continues rising. Gold is more frequently in the news, attracting more customers every day. Hedge funds, which never before considered gold, are now buying physical metal (Greenlight Capital actually sold $500 million of GLD and bought physical gold). Central banks are net buyers of gold for the first time in 22 years. China is running TV ads encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver. Last month Russia bought more gold than they actually produced. In a recent survey, 20 out of 22 fund managers bought physical gold for their personal investments. In other words, some investors are already scrambling to get it… and in big quantities. But it’s worse than that. Most of the ramifications of the money printing and dollar debasement haven’t even surfaced yet. How will the general public react when the dollar is crashing and standards of living are threatened? What will they do when milk and gas prices surge to twice what they are now? How will the greater collective respond when they lose faith in government interventions? Where will they invest when they see gold and silver prices screaming upward and don’t want to be left behind? The panic into gold by the general public hasn’t begun yet. Available supply is scarce and will get smaller. There won’t be enough. Better get your speck while you can.

TO HAVE GUV'MINT, OR NOT HAVE GUV'MINT...THAT IS THE QUESTION

Friday, September 18, 2009 The Epoch Battle of Our Time by Jacob G. Hornberger It seems as though every statist has his favorite health-care reform and, more important, is convinced that his particular reform is the one that is finally going to make socialism and interventionism succeed. I hate to burst anyone’s bubble, but it just ain’t gonna happen. Socialism and interventionism are inherently defective. They cannot be made to succeed. Even if the most brilliant set of minds comes up with the most brilliant health-care reform, the system will remain in chaos and crisis and, before long, people will once again be calling for reform and coming up with their favorite reform plans that they’re convinced will finally make the system work. The core reason why America’s health care is in such a mess is owing to socialism and interventionism. That’s what these people keep missing, and the reason they keep missing it is because they simply do not want to let go of their socialism and interventionism. They’re too committed to the idea that government should be involved in health care and, for that matter, most everything else. Thus, all their reform plans presume that socialism and interventionism are a given. No one is supposed to question the role of government in health care. Instead, everyone is supposed to just assume that socialism and interventionism are now a permanent feature in American life and come up with some silver-bullet reform that will finally make them work. Suppose a group of people start beating their heads against a wall, all day long, day in and day out. After a while, they begin suffering headaches. So, everyone decides to come up with reforms to cure the headaches. One reformer advises the group to pad the wall. Another reformer suggests taking pain relievers. Another recommends changing the position of the head. Everyone is convinced that his particular reform is ingenious and will succeed in stopping the headaches. Then, along comes a libertarian and says, “Actually, none of these reforms is going to work because they don’t get to the root of the problem.” His suggestion: “Stop beating your heads against the wall!” Immediately, the libertarian is hit with all sorts of vile and vituperative reactions: “You’re an extremist! You’re a radical! You’re whacky! We need reform, not eradication. Be practical. Join the mainstream and help us come up with the right reform to cure the headaches.” In one sense, social problems are much like medical problems. If the doctor gets the diagnosis wrong, he’s likely to get the prescription wrong. The same holds true for political and economic ailments that afflict the body politic. The health-care crisis is rooted in Medicare and Medicaid, government regulation of the health-care and insurance industries, tax-code incentives for employer-provided medical insurance, and medical licensure. Thus, there is but one solution to this mess: repeal all of those things. Don’t reform them. Don’t fix them. Just repeal them. Get government entirely out of the health-care business. Separate health care and state as fully and completely as our ancestors separated church and state. The health-care debate reflects the battle of our age — the battle between those of us who are fighting to restore economic liberty and free markets to our land and those who are battling to extend statism. As Ludwig von Mises stated, “No one can find a safe way out for himself if society is sweeping towards destruction. Therefore everyone, in his own interests, must thrust himself vigorously into the intellectual battle. None can stand aside with unconcern; the interests of everyone hang on the result. Whether he chooses or not, every man is drawn into the great historical struggle, the decisive battle into which our epoch has plunged us.” Jacob Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation.

ECONOMIC STIMULUS 101

CREDIT TO GOLDMELTER FOR THE ARTICLE Subject: Economic Stimulus 101 > > Sometime this year, we taxpayers may again receive an Economic > > Stimulus payment. This is a very exciting new program. > > > > I will explain it using the Q and A format: > > > > Q. What is an Economic Stimulus payment? > > > > A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers. > > > > Q. Where will the government get this money? > > > > A. From taxpayers. > > > > Q. So the government is giving me back my own money? > > > > A. Only a smidgen. > > > > Q. What is the purpose of this payment? > > > > A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy. > > > > Q. But isn't that stimulating the economy of China ? > > > > A. Shut up. > > > > Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the US > > economy by spending your stimulus check > > wisely: > > > > > > If you spend the stimulus money at Wal-Mart, the money will > > go to China . > > > > If you spend it on gasoline, your money will go to the Arabs. > > > > If you purchase a computer, it will go to India . > > > > If you purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico ,Honduras and > > Guatemala .. > > > > If you buy a car, it will go to Japan . > > > > If you purchase useless stuff, it will go to Taiwan . > > > > If you pay your credit cards off, or buy stock, it will go > > to management bonuses and they will hide it offshore. > > > > Instead, keep the money in America by: > > > > 1 spending it at yard sales > > > > 2 going to ball games > > > > 3 spending it on prostitutes > > > > 4 beer > > > > 5 tattoos. > > (These are the only American businesses still operating in the US .) > > > > I'm going to go to a ball game with a tattooed > > prostitute that I met at a yard sale and we're going to > > drink beer all day! > > > > FUN TIMES!

FIREARMS REFRESHER COURSE

FIREARMS REFRESHER COURSE CREDIT TO GOLDMELTER FOR THE ARTICLE 1. "Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not." ~Thomas Jefferson 2. Those who trade liberty for security have neither. ~John Adams 3. Free men do not ask permission to bear arms. 4. An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject. 5. Only a government that is afraid of its citizens tries to control them. 6. Gun control is not about guns; it's about control. 7. You only have the rights you are willing to fight for. 8. Know guns, know peace, know safety. No guns, no peace, no safety. 9. You don't shoot to kill; you shoot to stay alive. 10. Assault is a behavior, not a device. 11. 64,999,987 legal firearms owners killed no one yesterday. 12. The United States Constitution (c) 1791. All Rights Reserved. 13. The Second Amendment is in place in case the politicians ignore the others. 14. What part of 'shall not be infringed' do you NOT understand? 15. Guns have only two enemies; rust and politicians. 16. When you remove the people's right to bear arms, you create slaves. 17. The American Revolution would never have happened with gun control. IF YOU AGREE, PASS THIS 'REFRESHER' ON TO OTHER FREE CITIZENS.

The Destruction of the US Empire

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-destruction-of-the-us-empire/ BY BILL BONNER OF THEDAILYRECKONING.COM One of the best, and most humorous, of all financial writers. Read EVERYTHING that Bill Bonner writes and you will become well-versed, historically competent, and confident that you understand how we got to where we are, and a good insight into where we are going...financially...and culturally.

Gold and Freedom

Gold and Freedom, Part 2 by Jacob G. Hornberger, Posted September 11, 2009 http://www.fff.org/freedom/fd0905a.asp

THE REAL ISSUE IS FREEDOM FROM GUV'MINT

Friday, September 11, 2009 Faith in Freedom by Jacob G. Hornberger Whenever libertarians suggest that America’s socialist programs should be immediately repealed, rather than reformed or gradually reduced, statists inevitably react with shock and horror. The statists feel that Americans could never survive if their welfare-state dole was suddenly ended. What would happen if public schooling, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, farm subsidies, education grants, income taxation, and all other welfare-state programs were suddenly eliminated today? According to the statists, thousands of people would be dying of starvation and illness in the streets and the nation would quickly fill up with dumb, uneducated people. Nothing could be further from the truth. Actually, it would be the exact opposite. There would immediately be a tremendous outburst of creative energy, enterprise, prosperity, and charity throughout American society. Consider 19th-century American slaves who picked cotton on some Southern plantation. In a sense, they lived under a welfare program. While they were required to work hard, they had free housing, food, clothing, retirement, and health care provided to them by their employer. Their job skills were limited to picking cotton. Since work was mandated, they had not developed a work ethic that required them to voluntarily be at work on time. Moreover, they certainly had not acquired any skills in running their own businesses. They had lived like this for generations. Undoubtedly, some people in the 1800s argued that it would be cruel and brutal to free the slaves all at once. How would they survive, especially after several generations of life on the dole, with no real job skills, work ethic, and business experience? If the slaves were freed all at once and, therefore, no longer guaranteed the basic essentials of life, thousands of them would surely starve to death. They wouldn’t even have a few cents in savings to get them through a couple of weeks. Yet, when Lee surrendered to Grant at Appomattox, that’s precisely what happened. Slaves were freed all at once. No gradualism. No weaning. They were suddenly deprived of their guaranteed housing, clothing, food, health care, and job. They were suddenly on their own. While life was difficult for them, just as it was difficult for lots of people after the war, there were no mass deaths from starvation or from being deprived of health care or other essentials. The freeing of the slaves showed the remarkable resiliency of human beings. Some of them opened businesses, others went to work for businesses. Over time, some of the former slaves even began outcompeting whites, which was why whites began enacting Jim Crow laws. Another example was Franklin Roosevelt’s fascist National Industrial Recovery Act, which converted American industries into cartels that had the power to set their own prices. More and more people began realizing what a horrible disaster this program was for America, but the argument was that the NIRA had become too entrenched in the American economy to suddenly end it. Millions of Americans, both producers and consumers had become dependent on the NIRA and, therefore, people felt that if it were to be ended, it should be done gradually. One day, the Supreme Court declared the NIRA unconstitutional. On that day, the program suddenly ended. It’s as if the Court had pushed a magic button that immediately eradicated the law. The result? An outburst of creative energy and prosperity from having this fascist burden suddenly lifted off the American economy. The third example involves the extensive wage-and-price controls that the Allied Powers levied on Germany after World War II. Germans wanted them lifted but the Allies said that since people had become so dependent on them, there would be chaos if they were suddenly lifted. One day, and much to the chagrin of the Allied leaders, the German leader Ludwig Ehard suddenly announced that the controls were lifted. That was the start of the post-war German “economic miracle.” The best thing that could ever happen to the American people is to have all welfare-state programs repealed, immediately. Given the resiliency of human beings, there is no doubt that there would be a tremendous outburst of creative energy, prosperity, and charity. The problem we face is that all too many Americans just don’t believe it. Given the decades of dependency on the welfare state, Americans have lost their sense of self-reliance and self-esteem. Thus, the problem we face in our day is not only economic and political in nature but also psychological in nature. To get our nation back on the right track, we libertarians have the task of not only showing people that economic liberty and free markets are moral and that they work, we must also inspire people to restore their faith in themselves, in others, in freedom, in free markets, and in God. Jacob Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation.

ON THE HEALTHCARE REFORM DEBATE FROM RON PAUL'S CAMPAIGN FOR LIBERTY

September 10, 2009 Dear Friend of Liberty, Last night, President Obama made it clear he intends to push hard for a government-run Health Control system. His plans, if enacted, will result over time in either a complete government takeover of Health Care, or the total destruction of any meaningful private system. Now is the time for us to raise our voices and insist Congress vote "NO" to this government power grab. Make no mistake, the Obama plan will cause the price of insurance to skyrocket even further by increasing payouts and other costs of doing business, putting many more Americans in the position of having to drop their coverage. One plan currently being considered in the Senate would impose a $3,800 fine on families who refuse to get health insurance. Health insurance will no longer be a free choice in our country. President Obama has long advocated a universal, single-payer system, and that is the ultimate goal of enacting this so-called "reform" package. In regards to his deficit-neutral promise, the Congressional Budget Office has already stated (GO HERE: http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=332) that HR 3200 will add over $200 billion to the deficit over the next ten years, and Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are already trillions of dollars in the red. Are we really expected to believe that yet another government program on top of all these will save money? And, hidden throughout the over 1000 pages that make up this bill are even more "goodies" for the allies of Big Government, such as a massive payoff to Big Labor, who will reap millions of new forced union dues and wield unprecedented power over government and "private" health care as reported (GO HERE: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203440104574400571702189240.html) in The Wall Street Journal. President Obama has repeatedly stated that we cannot deal with the rising cost of health care by maintaining the status quo. I wholeheartedly agree. We must acknowledge that the root cause of the health care crisis in this country is government interference (GO HERE: http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=24061). Of course, many in the insurance industry have taken full advantage of their lobbying power and monopolies, but they have been able to do this because of the government. It is government that prohibits individuals from being able to shop across state lines for insurance. It is government that imposes thousands of mandates on insurance providers. It is government that created HMOs in the 1970s. It is government that has skewed (GO HERE: http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog.php?view=23690) the market to prop up third party payers. Simply put, the problems with health care in America are TOO MUCH government interference already. The solution is to lessen government control - NOT give them more power! The Council for Affordable Health Insurance has identified a total of 2,133 mandated benefits and providers currently required by state legislatures, mandates they estimate increase the cost of basic coverage from around 20% to as high as possibly 50%. Read their report here: http://www.cahi.org/cahi_contents/resources/pdf/HealthInsuranceMandates2009.pdf If the president thinks we can pay for his plan through saving billions of dollars by eliminating waste and abuse in Medicare and Medicaid, then why don't we clean out those systems now and return that money through tax cuts to the American taxpayer, providing them extra funds to buy insurance if they want it? Both major parties believe the answer to our health care crisis is through government intervention. They only differ in the degree of that intervention. It's time to choose freedom. Americans should be free to shop across state lines for health insurance, to easily go outside the country for cheaper medications, and to buy health insurance without being taxed on it. Congress should give Americans control over their health care by giving them control over their health care dollar via tax credits and deductions similar to those outlined in Congressman Ron Paul's Comprehensive Health Care Reform Act (HR 1495). And Congress should protect privacy rights by allowing patients and physicians to opt-out of any government-mandated or funded system of electronic health care records, and by repealing the federal law creating an "unique patient identifier" by adopting the policies contained in Congressman Ron Paul's Protect Patients and Physicians Privacy Act (HR 2630). Tell Congress today that you oppose cementing the status quo of government care. Urge your representative and senators to oppose HR 3200 and all other bills that would take control over your health care out of your hands. Click here to sign our petition: http://www.campaignforliberty.com/campaigns/obama-healthcare.php?projid=66 President Obama ran on a platform of hope and change, but his policies have proved to be not only more of the same, but a fresh stamp of approval on the ways things have been done for the last thirty years. Real reform starts with freedom, and real hope for America means upholding its founding principle of self-determination. In Liberty, John Tate President

Obama Unleashes Feared And Crushing “Tytler Cycle” Upon America

YOU ALL MUST READ THIS ARTICLE AND ALL THE LINKS WITHIN IT. http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1272.htm THIS ONE TELLS YOU HOW WE GOT TO WHERE WE ARE NOW AND WHO DID IT, AND IS CONTINUING TO DO IT TO US. ALL YOU CAN DO NOW IS TO FIGHT BACK WITH EVERYTHING YOU HAVE TO POSTPONE YOUR INEVITABLE DEATH AT THEIR HANDS. THIS IS THE REAL DEAL.... http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1272.htm The Tytler Cycle is a theory of democracies formulated by the Scottish historian Alexander Tytler that states: “A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to complacency; From complacency to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.” And at 233-years-old since its declaration of independence from the British Empire, the United States falls perfectly into the Tytler Cycle parameters predicting it being on the very cusp of becoming a dictatorship that will enslave its peoples and force upon them a totalitarian fascist police state modeled on that of the former German Nazi Empire headed by the charismatic speaker, Adolph Hitler.

QUOTE TO THINK ABOUT

An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all Republics. ~ Plutarch (circa 45 - 125 A.D.)

Japan Joins Chinese Assault Against West, Vows To “Destroy” America

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1271.htm You'd best read this one and the links in it as we are only about two months from total collapse.

For more hard-pressed Americans, a campsite is home

http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/08/31/for-more-hard-pressed-americans-a-campsite-is-home/ Camp grounds and tent cities become permanent addresses. By Patrik Jonsson | Staff writer/ August 31, 2009 edition

U.S. Dollar Will Weaken, Currency Crash Possible, Roubini Says

U.S. Dollar Will Weaken, Currency Crash Possible, Roubini Says By Sonia Sirletti and Jeffrey Donovan Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will weaken and the U.S. risks seeing a crash of the currency unless it does more to control the deficit and reduce debt, said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis. “If markets were to believe, and I’m not saying it’s likely, that inflation is going to be the route that the U.S. is going to take to resolve this problem, then you could have a crash of the value of the dollar,” Roubini said in an interview today in Cernobbio, Italy. “The value of the dollar over time has to fall on a trade-weighted basis, but not necessarily relative to euro and yen.” Roubini said he didn’t see a risk of a dollar crash in the “‘short term.” The value of the U.S. currency relative to currencies such as the yen or the euro “cannot change too much compared to current levels because if the dollar were to weaken a lot and the euro strengthen a lot, that’s going to warp any chance for the European economy to recover, same argument as to the yen,” he said. “Most of the adjustment of the dollar in the future has to occur relative to China, relative to emerging Asia and relative to some of the other commodity exporters in the world, whether these are advanced economies or emerging markets,” he said. Foreign creditors need assurances that the U.S. will address its deficit, Roubini said. “Unless in the medium term these issues of fiscal sustainability are addressed, and unless we mop up that excess liquidity from the financial system, eventually the financial markets and the foreign creditors of the United States might get more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit and about the U.S. being tempted to use the inflation tax as a way of resolving its private and public debt problems,” he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Sonia Sirletti in Milan at ssirletti@bloomberg.net; Jeffrey Donovan in Rome at jdonovan26@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 4, 2009 09:13 EDT

A Need for Some Soul-Searching by Jacob Hornberger

Tuesday, September 1, 2009 FROM FFF.ORG A Need for Some Soul-Searching by Jacob G. Hornberger Close your eyes, let your mind roam, and imagine the following: You are living in a country where the government has the power to round up whomever it wants, incarcerate them for as long it is wants, deny them due process and a trial, and torture them. The government is attacking and occupying other countries. It is confiscating everyone’s income and wealth and doling it out to others. The government is jailing people on a myriad of economic crimes and tax violations. Now, open your eyes. Welcome to reality. This is the America in which we now live. It is a country whose government is torturing people with impunity and is even proud of it. It is a government that has the power to actually ignore the Bill of Rights by simply labeling people terrorists. It is a country in which vast numbers of people are living off money that the IRS confiscates from others and fighting vociferously for their right to do so, no matter how much damage they are inflicting on the victims. It is country whose government is occupying two foreign countries and has military bases in more than 100 others. It is a country whose government is punishing people for economic crimes and tax crimes. What a mess this country is in. On the domestic side, you have the liberals, with their deeply engrained socialist philosophy, whose programs forcibly take money from Peter and give it to Paul, magically converting everyone into caring and compassionate saints. Never mind that they’re bankrupting America with their ever-soaring spending, taxes, and debt. On the foreign side, you have the conservatives, with their deeply engrained imperialist philosophy, whose programs entail militarism, invasions, occupations, torture, kangaroo tribunals, and destruction of civil liberties. Never mind that they’re too bankrupting America with ever-soaring spending, taxes, and debts. And then you have those multitudes of liberals and conservatives who favor both socialism and imperialism. But even those two isms are not the major threat that faces our nation. Instead, the biggest threat comes from within ourselves — the moral degeneracy that all this produces within us, a degeneracy that is reflected by increasing numbers of people who see nothing wrong with torture, political confiscation and redistribution of wealth, wars of aggression and occupations, destruction of civil liberties, and the prosecution and punishment of people committing economic crimes and tax violations. Clearly America is in desperate need of a reexamination of what this nation has become and how far it has strayed from its founding principles, principles that once made America the marvel of the world. Those principles included no income tax, no Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, bailouts, food stamps, farm subsides, and other welfare, no militarism, no wars of aggression and foreign occupations, no torture, and a deep and abiding respect for the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. But what is most needed at this point of our existence is some mighty deep soul-searching. Is this what we as a people are all about? Rather than look to themselves and to their Creator to help them get through the difficulties of life, as our American ancestors did, modern-day Americans have chosen to render unto Caesar their lives, fortunes, and well-being, the very things that should be rendered to God. And Americans are now reaping the whirlwind, as reflected by the crises, chaos, and disharmony in our daily lives. The political and economic solution to America’s woes lies in abandoning socialism and imperialism and restoring a free-market, limited-government republic to our land. More fundamentally, however, the solution involves a restoration within the American people of faith in themselves, in others, in freedom, and in God. Jacob Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation.

SINCLAIR GIVES US HIS 'ANGELS', MAGNET PRICES THAT GOLD WILL BE PULLED TO

Giving you gold price objectives has not proved in the past to be in your best interest as we are read by both sides of the gold market spectrum. However, one time ONLY, here they are: - $1000. Three tries and success. This is the third try. - $1024 - $1089 - $1156 - $1225 - $1296 - $1369 - $1444 - $1521 - $1600 - $1681 Then on to Alf’s numbers. (GT sez: These numbers are big: like $3000, $5000, $10,000 for the gold price. But it's impractical to put a time frame on them because by then, then economy will be in a state of revolution. Those kinds of numbers would represent the almost total hyper inflationary destruction of paper currency in dollars where you would be running for your life with gold coins on your person to a safer location where you would be less likely to be robbed, killed and stripped of the gold in your teeth by ravenous, starving mobs of the idiots left on earth.) Notice that Sinclair's numbers increase by approximately $75 dollars each level. They are very accurate, but not infallible numbers and only guides to where gold will run to each cycle as it moves higher in the next few months, NOT YEARS as many would like to think. TIME HAS RUN OUT FOR THE UNITED STATES CURRENCY AND ITS GOVERNMENT AND WAY OF LIFE. We will all soon be the largest group of beggars on the planet. PREPARE FOR IT!

THE FED ON THE DEFENSIVE

Gary North's REALITY CHECK Gold's price: http://www.GaryNorth.com/snip/300.htm The Federal debt: http://www.GaryNorth.com/snip/544.htm To subscribe to this letter: http://www.snipurl.com/subscribenow Issue 887 August 28, 2009 THE FED ON THE DEFENSIVE I do not recall this in my lifetime. A majority in the House of Representatives has co-signed H.R. 1207, a bill introduced by Ron Paul to have the Federal Reserve System audited by an independent government agency, the Comptroller General's office. The bill has been bottled up in committee by Barney Frank, who has insisted that he is doing this in order to better coordinate consideration of the best way to gain greater transparency from the Federal Reserve. He has not said that he favors an independent audit of the FED. http://tinyurl.com/m2ua83 It would be easy for Congressman Frank to hold hearings on the bill. This would allow Dr. Paul to bring in expert witnesses on the FED to make the case for an independent audit. It would get a lot of YouTube play. It would be the first time since the replacement of eccentric Congressman Wright Patman in 1975 as the chairman of the House Banking Committee that the FED has been exposed to anything like serious criticism in Congress. (Patman, an inflationist and a greenbacker, hated the FED. He was chairman of the House Banking Committee, 1965-75.) Congressman Frank has yet to announce hearings. There was a posting on the DailyPaul site that Frank will hold hearings soon. Someone heard it on the radio. I will believe it when I see the YouTube videos. The FED in June hired a public relations expert, Linda Robinson, to deal with Congress. She was formerly a lobbyist for Enron. (http://tinyurl.com/mu64d7) I have little doubt that it was H.R. 1207 that forced the FED into this move. Now Ron Paul's book, "End the Fed," is about to be published. It is expected to become a best-seller. Think about this. There have been books attacking the Federal Reserve System for over ninety years, but they have been written by obscure people who no one in the general public has heard of. They have not sold well. They have not been written by someone who persuaded over half of the House of Representatives to support a bill to audit the FED. They have not been written by someone who once raised over $30 million in a run for President. This is unprecedented. For the first time in the history of the Federal Reserve System, there are literally millions of people who have heard of the FED and who would like to see it shut down. There have been academic and investment critics of this or that policy of the FED, most notably Milton Friedman, who criticized the FED for not inflating enough, 1930-33. But there has never been a serious audience ready to listen to arguments on why a system of 12 private banks should oversee monetary policy, and why one of them, the New York Federal Reserve Bank, should execute this policy without having to answer to anyone. THE BLOOMBERG LAWSUIT The Bloomberg news service has sued the Board of Governors of the FED under the Freedom of Information Act. The lawsuit says that it is illegal for the Board of Governors to refuse to release information on which banks have received financial aid from the FED. The Board of Governors countered with this argument. The New York FED is a privately owned entity. It executes monetary policy. It is not subject to the Freedom of Information Act. The FED also argued that the banking system would be threatened by the release of this information. This case went to court. The judge ruled on August 24 that the Board of Governors of the FED must make this information public no later than August 31. On August 26, the FED asked the judge not to enforce her ruling. Why not? Because it would be bad for the banking system. She had heard that argument before. Well, what else? The Board of Governors' lawyer insisted that the Board has no knowledge of what the New York FED -- its legal agent -- really does. The lawyer said, "We don't control the system of record-keeping in New York." She insisted that the Board of Governors just cannot find out what the New York FED did with the money in time to meet the deadline. Apparently, the Board of Governors, a government agency, has taken seriously Jesus' words regarding charity (alms): But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth: That thine alms may be in secret: and thy Father which seeth in secret himself shall reward thee openly (Matthew 6:3-4). The two FEDS, the government one and the private one, were surely involved in the charity business, to the tune of a trillion dollars or so. This was a system of handouts on an unprecedented scale. The Father in Washington has surely rewarded the FED in the past. The FED expects more of the same in the future. But now this pesky lawsuit forces an opening of the books. Is the lawyer's argument credible? Perhaps the judge will not regard it as credible. So, the FED had another argument. The FED wants to her to wait until the case can be heard on appeal. But there was a hitch. The FED did not say when it intends to appeal. http://tinyurl.com/mq5hkh Here is the FED, with a court ruling against it, and with the clock ticking, admitting that it has no date set to file an appeal. Its lawyers apparently had no fall-back position. Is this credible? Of course not. Will it work? We shall see. If it does work, and if H. R. 1207 remains bottled up in committee, the growing army of people who have finally found out about the FED will have two more pieces of evidence that the U.S. government does not run the FED. If the bill passes the House and the Senate, Obama will veto it. The FED is not going to be audited by the government. That is not how the world works. The FED is only officially under government authority. Except in wartime, it has never been under government authority. It was set up to provide the illusion of government control. That illusion has worked since 1913. The FED does face a major problem. If it escapes from both the Congress and the courts, this will sell lots more copies of "End the Fed." On the other hand, if the court system finally forces the FED to reveal who got what and on what terms, then banks in the future will hesitate to go to the FED, hat in hand, because the public learn who was begging for a bailout. This is not the sort of information that big bank bankers want the financial press to discover, let alone the Internet. The handouts went to the big banks. Most banks were ignored. They were allowed to sink or swim. This has created a problem: bank bankruptcies every weekend for as far as the eye can see. 416 PROBLEM BANKS The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, flush with a $30 billion loan from Congress, has announced that its list of problem banks climbed in one month from 305 to 416. The list is secret, of course, for the same reason that the New York FED's list is secret. The FDIC does not want to cause a run on any of the 416 banks. A bank run these days takes the form of wire transfers and checks written to other banks to open an account. The money supply remains constant. Some banks lose; others win. The bad banks go bust. The FDIC then has to buy up all of their bad assets. Solvent banks then buy the good assets. The big winners are the solvent banks that buy their rivals' assets at fire-sale prices. The big losers are taxpayers and investors who believe that all of the Treasury debt that Congress must sell to cover its loan to the FDIC will be repaid in real money some day. On August 27, the FDIC announced that its member institutions lost $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2009. In a press release that was reminiscent of "Spin City," the head of the FDIC, Sheila Bair, announced: "While challenges remain, evidence is building that the U.S. economy is starting to grow again," said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. "Banking industry performance is -- as always -- a lagging indicator. The banking industry, too, can look forward to better times ahead. But, for now, the difficult and necessary process of recognizing loan losses and cleaning up balance sheets continues to be reflected in the industry's bottom line." Translation: "The economy is better off than the banks are, and the economy remains in the pits. Why? Because banks are not lending. Someday, things will turn around for the banking system as a whole, but don't get your hopes up. Cleaning up bank balance sheets these days is comparable to cleaning up the Augean stables, for all you classics buffs out there." Chairman Bair went on to say, "The FDIC was created specifically for times such as these. No matter how challenging the environment, the FDIC has ample resources to continue protecting depositors as we have for the last 75 years. No insured depositor has ever lost a penny of insured deposits...and no one ever will." Translation: "Congress may have to fork over another couple of hundred bullion -- maybe $500 billion, if Senator Dodd's bill is signed into law -- but no one will ever lose a penny in an FDIC-insured bank. But taxpayers will pay a pretty penny to whoever buys all those T-bills that Congress will have to issue to keep the FDIC solvent." The press release reported the following. 1. Total assets of insured institutions declined by $238 billion. 2. The number of institutions on the FDIC's "Problem List" rose. At the end of June, there were 416 insured institutions on the "Problem List," up from 305 on March 31. 3. Total reserves of the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) stood at $42 billion. [No mention of the $30 billion loan from Congress to get reserves back up.] http://tinyurl.com/l3n8aa How bad is this number: 416 problem banks? Not as bad as 1882 problem banks. That is the estimate of Institutional Risk Analytics, a private research firm. The organization gave a grade of F to 1882 banks, as of June 30. This figure was up by 16.5% since late March. What about the number of A-rated banks? The number was down by 21% since late March. This list does not include the 19 big banks that went through the stress tests, which all of them passed. The stress tests assumed that big banks would have enough capital to withstand a 9% loss rate over the next two years. The problem is, according to the company's managing director, that we are already at 9% loss rates, and we are not yet at the bottom of the cycle. If the economy does not recover by the 4th quarter, banking statistics will head down in 2010. (http://tinyurl.com/nr2z67) The Federal Reserve System intervened to save the financial system in 2008. But has the system as a whole recovered? No. Has unemployment stopped rising? No. Has the economy recovered? No. GROWING HOSTILITY TO THE FED Always in the past, the Federal Reserve has remained free from serious criticism. The media are obedient lap dogs. So are the academic economists. The textbooks never point out that the FED is the enforcing arm of a huge cartel. The professors refrain from applying to the FED their analyses in their chapters on cartels. Today, for the first time, there is a growing audience of intelligent people who are being exposed to the truth about the FED. This has taken place outside Establishment channels, which includes the largest talk radio shows. The FED has had a 90-year free ride. That ride is over. The FED will never again get off scott-free. The Web is sufficient to continue to inform people regarding the economic disasters that the FED has caused by its anti- recession, big bank bailout policies. Bernanke is pursuing the same low-interest rate policy that Greenspan pursued from mid-2000 to mid-2004. A few mainstream critics of Greenspan now say that his policy failed. But they refuse to say that Bernanke's policy is the same, and that the resulting crises will be worse. The critics do not see the operations of the FED in terms of a consistent theory of monetary cause and effect. They view monetary policy as somehow based on personality of the Chairman. Before, Greenspan was "the Maestro." Bernanke is "the Professor." The policies are the same: pump and dump. The FED pumps up the money supply, and the Treasury dumps T-bills and T-bonds on the FED. The FED has promised to unwind its doubled monetary base (balance sheet) when the economy revives. In recent months, it has sold off some debt. The monetary base is down from its peak. The Treasury has been able to sell its debt to investors who still dear the economy. This cannot go on for more than a year unless the economy stays in recession. The size of the deficits will be too great. The FED really is trapped unless the economy revives, commercial bank credit to private industry revives, and price inflation remains low. But a revival of commercial bank lending will turn the FED's monetary base into spendable money. The M1 money supply will double. The M1 money multiplier will go positive. At that point, the FED will have to unwind, meaning sell off assets. To whom? At what interest rate? It will be in competition with both the Treasury and Fannie/Freddie. CONCLUSION The FED has never had to play defense. It has had a free ride. The free ride is over. The general public has still not heard of the FED. The FED still has the advantage of invisibility. But it is losing that invisibility. This is not going to change. The FED is a legitimate target for people who think the government botches the economy. It is the classic example of the much-praised government-business alliance. It is the consummate model of that alliance. When it fails to achieve its twin official goals of low unemployment and low price inflation, millions of its economic victims will figure out who the culprit is. End the Fed.

Mind blowing speech by Robert Welch in 1958 predicting Insiders plans to destroy America

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZU0c8DAIU4