Sunday, October 5, 2008


Jim Sinclair's Commentary Be cautious of the "set in cement" opinion that the negative economic conditions in Europe will exceed the size of the unwind in the USA, the largest economy on the planet and the one who wrote over 75% of all OTC derivatives. This opinion is over discounted in the markets which tends to vote against it or at the least vote for overstatement. The European situation may come all at once, giving a scary visage, but in the final analysis will be considerably smaller in financial terms than the many trillions already fried in dollar based financial entities. IMF Says U.S. Faces `Sharp Downturn' as Market Crisis Worsens By Christopher Swann Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may fall into a recession as the financial rout deepens, the International Monetary Fund said in its most pessimistic outlook for the world's largest economy since the credit crisis began last year. ``The financial turmoil that began in the summer of 2007 has mutated into a full-blown crisis,'' the fund said in a section of its semiannual World Economic Outlook released in Washington today. There is ``a substantial likelihood of a sharp downturn in the United States,'' the fund said. By contrast, the IMF in July projected the U.S. would ``contract moderately'' in the second half of 2008 before recovering in 2009. Officials also said in a July update of economic forecasts that the global growth outlook was more ``balanced.'' ``Strong actions by policy makers to deal with the stress and support the restoration of financial system capital seem particularly important,'' the lender said today. Next week, the IMF will release updated projections for gross domestic product for the U.S. and other economies. The warning came as the U.S. Congress worked to pass a $700 billion bank rescue package to reassure financial markets. The Senate passed the legislation late yesterday, and the House of Representatives may vote tomorrow after rejecting a different version three days ago.